Market analysis

From: Chris Bocking (Hirst Research Center), André Dolenc (Helsinki University of Technology), Terry Wohlers (Wohlers Associates), Marshall Burns (Ennex  Corporation)
To: RP-ML
Date: Thursday, September 28, 1995
Subject: Market analysis
Chris Bocking writes:
 > I am collecting data on how much the Rapid Prototyping/Rapid tooling 
 > market is currently worth in EUROPE at present as well as its 
 > projected value in say 3 years time. Has anyone carried out market 
 > research/value analysis in this area?
> Failing that, I would settle for current worldwide values ...


Date: Thu, 28 Sep 1995 11:13:33 +0200
From: Andre Dolenc <ado@cs.hut.fi>
     I don't know about Europe, but last year I learned about the Japanese
figures from the largest RP service bureau (in Japan).
     The value of prototypes was about USD 100 million, whereas tooling
was about USD 1 billion. It was claimed that the ratio 1:10 is a reasonable
guess for any other country.
Regards, Andre'

Date: 29 Sep 95 18:53:06 EDT
From: Terry Wohlers <73417.1465@compuserve.com>
Chris - My company has published the following information:
     Last year, RP was an estimated $198 million industry worldwide.  If you add in
the tooling and duplicate parts that result from RP patterns, the industry
grows to an estimated $280 million, conservatively.  Product sales added up to
an estimated $78.6 million in '94.  Product sales includes RP systems,
materials, and after-market products such as lasers and software.  
     The worldwide RP part-making business at service bureaus (SBs) was an estimated
$95 million in '94.  Tooling and duplicate parts that result from RP patterns
added up to an additional $83 million, another conservative estimate.
     Wohlers Associates forecasts the '95 market to exceed $318 million and expects
the market to reach $475 million in 1996.  These forecasts include the sales of
RP products and services, but they do not include revenues generated from
tooling and duplicate parts.  I have not published forecasts beyond 1996.
     I hope this information is helpful.
Terry Wohlers
Wohlers Associates

Date: Sat, 30 Sep 1995 15:17:45 -0700 (PDT)
From: "M. Burns (marshall@ennex.com)" <mburns@netcom.com>
Dear fellow RP-ers and holoformers,
     Ennex Fabrication Technologies is pleased to share the following 
figures on the growth of the additive fabricator market worldwide.
     We estimate that the total sales of additive fabricators (SLA, LOM, 
SLS, FDM, etc.) was approximately $70 million worldwide in 1994. This 
includes only the sale of fabricators themselves, and specifically 
excludes the sale of related services and materials. This represents an 
average annual growth rate of 58% since the beginning of the industry in 
1988, when 3D Systems reported sales of $4.6 million for its first year. 
We can expect the industry to grow faster as word catches on about these 
magical devices, but just extrapolating with an annual growth rate of 
55%, we get the following projected market sizes (rounded to nearest $10 
million):
          1995: $  110 million
          1996:    170
          1997:    260
          1998:    400
          1999:    630
          2000:    970
          2001: $1.5 billion
     Like most projections of the future, these figures only give an idea 
of what is possible, and cannot be relied upon. I hope others find these 
ideas interesting and useful.
Best regards,
Marshall Burns
marshall@ennex.com