Steve,
In a message dated 12/4/98 1:39:05 AM EST, you write:
> Lets say that the cost of a laser sintering station came down to $3,000,
> an absurd thought I think but just for the sake of discussion, Hewlett
> Packard mass produces them and drives down the cost. At this price,
> there would still be few hobbyist willing to purchase this for limited
> use. How many in the mainstream would spend $3,000 on a color printer
> if that was the going rate?
This is an interesting scenario (independent of which of the several
technologies is first mass produced). Although it's too complex and
speculative for me to offer a detailed and comprehensive prediction, I'd like
to briefly offer three points for consideration.
First, the evolution of the (3D) "color printer" you describe will depend on
continued progress on all the tools which will be required to make 3D work
easy and affordable (including scanning and modeling software, etc.).
Second, "manufacturing" has very different needs and potential from
"visualization." Although Al Hastbacka, of Sanders, recently gave us a
glimpse of the color potential for 3D visualization, we haven't really begun
to explore that new area. It's good to have such diverse applications to
eventually fuel high level R&D.
Third, the 3D printer you mention will deserve mass production long before
there are a significant number of individual hobbyists who are willing to
purchase it. One only needs to look back at 2D copiers and printers (never
less than two color) to get a good idea of the likely progression. Right now,
I'm eagerly looking forward to the units which will be installed in offices,
colleges and copy shops. I'll be delighted when such 3D units only cost twice
as much as their 2D counterparts, because then I'll be able to find one to
use. [No need to come down as dramatically as the 2D color printer - now
advertised in my daily paper for $89.]
Norm Kinzie
1 781 444 6910
For more information about the rp-ml, see http://ltk.hut.fi/rp-ml/
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