In my original market forecast of RP technology, dated January 1991, I
wrote that:
As RP technologies become more reliable and less expensive, some
observers expect that the importance of service bureaus will decline... a sign
that companies have become comfortable with RP technology and are beginning
to adapt it in-house... However, companies may continue to pursue RP with
service bureaus as a cost-effective way to pursue new designs...
The actual market numbers I projected were much more conservative than
those 100 percent per year growth figures published at that time, but even
my numbers for 2001 are looking a little too bullish (unless the next two
years bring some great breakthrough).
I still don't think that what the RP industry is going through at the
moment is anything other than normal for a new technology. If someone among
the many players out there comes up with a breakthrough in performance or
in price-to-performance ratio, the entire industry could be off and running
again. Consider that the Internet languished for twenty years before
someone invented an easier way to use it. If it hadn't been for DARPA and a
few die-hard users, it might not have lasted that long. Perhaps the wrong
people are throwing too much money at the wrong RP problem or too little
money at the big problem, or totally ignoring some killer technology. I don't
know, but, unless the global capitalist model has already run its course,
it's a little too early to be blowing taps for RP or RP service bureaus.
Brock Hinzmann
Technology Navigator
Karl Denton wrote:
>Arnold,
>
>I'm not sure that I believe that the market will bottom out! Companies
>close every day and yet other industries seem to still be growing. I
have
>conducted surveys for the RP industry for several years now and have
never
>based any prediction, market growth comment on the service bureau
business.
>This in my mind is risky at best. Service bureau's can and do go out of
>business for several reasons and in the case of Pylnetics it was very
poor
>money management, not attributed to sales of RP parts or services. When
>Pylnetics Express shut down there was a massive insurgence of part build
>requests to the rest of the RP SB community and indeed it sparked
several
>NEW purchases of equipment. The fact that the machines that were going
out
>at auction will typically not hurt new sales and in fact may help push
>others to new machines (case in point is the client that I went to the
>auction to represent).
>
>You must remember that this is a small industry and every time there is
a
>burp in anybody's business others and indeed the whole industry hears
and
>reacts to it. Even if Compression is forced to down size or close this
in
>my opinion would not cause sales of new RP equipment to stop or slow
down.
>There are several hundred if not thousands of companies that have never
>heard of Pylnetics, Compression and in some cases even RP that will be
>potential new users of this technology. I might suggest (at the risk of
>starting a whole new batch of emails from various individuals) state
that
>earlier growth predictions and forecasts may have been a bit too
aggressive
>in being based on the SB industry. I might add that the SB's in my area
are
>doing well, producing and growing and at a manageable rate, and that
they
>all have figured out what they were best at and have managed to use that
to
>their advantage.
>
>As for the price tag that 3D has decided to put on their equipment I can
>only say that I think this will hurt in the long run. They have always
been
>the highest priced and in some cases the most arrogant about it. This
may
>change over time and I hope that it does. I have used their equipment
for
>some time and do believe that they have very sound an reliable equipment
but
>others are catching up and should not be over looked by 3D. Instead of
>seeing an industry wide slow down I think that we will see customer
loyalty
>change from manufacturer to manufacturer based on these things. This
will
>provide some with the opportunity to expand and then provide others with
a
>wake-up call.
>
>I hope this answers your question...
>
>Karl R. Denton
>Advanced Technology Consultants LLC
>4778 Greenview Ct.
>Commerce Twp., MI 48382
>Email: karldenton@ameritech.net
>Phone: 248-363-1478
>Cell: 248-789-6410
>Pager: 248-523-3318
>Fax: 248-363-7488
>
>Helping you excel through the use of Advanced Technologies
>____________________________________________________________
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: B. J. Arnold-Feret [mailto:ppsltd@airmail.net]
>Sent: Sunday, March 21, 1999 11:40 PM
>To: Karl Denton
>Subject: RE: Thoughts and comments on the Plynetics Auction (Schaumburg
>location)
>
>Now, having got all that other stuff out of the way-
>
>What, in your opinion, is going to be the bottoming out of the market on
RP
>equipment from a timing and pricing level? Let's assume (always
dangerous)
>;) that Compression does go down the tubes and their equipment becomes
>available within the next year.
>
>Used DTM machines continue to sell cheaper than I expect. Used SLA 250
>machines are easily obtained right now.
>
>It is pretty interesting that 3D is selling the new machine at quite a
>ticket price, and used equipment continues to drop in pricing. I
personally
>thought the market would bottom out in around summer of 2000. However,
with
>several firms gone in a shorter time that I predicted, I wonder if the
>timeframe should be moved up. I know that we'll hear from Terry about
the
>future at the RP & M, but I am very interested in other perspectives.
>
>
>B. J. Arnold-Feret
>ppsltd@airmail.net
>
>
>
>For more information about the rp-ml, see http://ltk.hut.fi/rp-ml/
>
>RFC822 header
>-----------------------------------
>
>Status: U
>Return-Path: <owner-rp-ml@ltk.hut.fi>
>Received: from bart.lpt.fi ([193.166.66.1]) by mgw-mp.sric.sri.com
> (Netscape Messaging Server 3.6) with ESMTP id AAA6827;
> Mon, 22 Mar 1999 16:25:19 -0800
>Received: from major by bart.lpt.fi with local (Exim 1.90 #2)
> for rp-ml-outgoing@bart.lpt.fi
> id 10PEjK-0002je-00; Tue, 23 Mar 1999 00:07:38 +0000
>Received: from mpdr0.detroit.mi.ameritech.net ([206.141.239.206]
>helo=mailhost.det.ameritech.net)
> by bart.lpt.fi with esmtp (Exim 1.90 #2)
> for rp-ml@bart.lpt.fi
> id 10PEjI-0001RN-00; Tue, 23 Mar 1999 02:07:36 +0200
>Received: from oemcomputer ([206.141.217.43]) by
mailhost.det.ameritech.net
> (InterMail v03.02.07 118 124) with SMTP
> id <19990323010156.TYW4450@oemcomputer>;
> Mon, 22 Mar 1999 19:01:56 -0600
>From: "Karl Denton" <karldenton@ameritech.net>
>To: "B. J. Arnold-Feret" <ppsltd@airmail.net>
>Cc: "Rp-Ml" <rp-ml@bart.lpt.fi>
>Subject: RE: Thoughts and comments on the Plynetics Auction (Schaumburg
>location)
>Date: Mon, 22 Mar 1999 19:07:05 -0500
>Message-ID: <000801be74c1$15e9b320$2bd98dce@oemcomputer>
>MIME-Version: 1.0
>Content-Type: text/plain;
> charset="iso-8859-1"
>Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
>X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
>X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
>X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
>X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3155.0
>Importance: Normal
>In-Reply-To: <mR/10OwVY-0001UnR@mail.airmail.net>
>Sender: owner-rp-ml@ltk.hut.fi
>Precedence: bulk
>
For more information about the rp-ml, see http://ltk.hut.fi/rp-ml/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : Tue Jun 05 2001 - 22:51:18 EEST