Re: what RP vendors need to do..........

From: Bathsheba Grossman (sheba@bathsheba.com)
Date: Mon Oct 25 1999 - 20:41:55 EEST


On Mon, 25 Oct 1999, Tom Richards wrote:
> RP vendors need to focus on improving:
> Resolution (the radius of intersection of surfaces) to under 0.002";
> Surface finish to under 80 RMS:
> Accuracy to under 0.003 inch/inch and
> Build speeds and Machine prices amortized in three years which afford an
> economy of construction in say polystyrene to under $10/cubic inch including
> 50% support structure.
>
> At 08:58 AM 10/25/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Just reading Geoff Smith's report on 3D and saw a section on what he thinks
> >3d needs to do. I am sure this is a composite of what has been stated to
> >him....but I am curious about what you think RP vendors need to be focused
> >on for the next century. Like a political poll this is just individual
> >opinions only......

Well, it depends who you talk to. :-)

It's not obvious to me who the great mass of mom-and-pop low-end users
will be in the future - what's the killer RP app that everybody will
use every week? Maybe it's pointless to speculate before the market
really develops, but I can wonder...key duplication? bowling trophies?
pet tombstones? customized hat blocking? models of video game avatars?

I guess my prediction is that the technology will ramify in different
directions. Right now it seems like plastics manufacturing -
prototypes and tooling - is the main target market, and everybody else
gets short shrift. That's a good market: it can afford to pay a lot
and it's not going away, but it's not the only one out there. The
Sanders people have started to move out of the box by targeting
jewelers, and that's the kind of thing I expect to see more of.

Jewelry is a nice market niche: it can support high costs-per-cubic,
requires a very good surface and good accuracy, and doesn't need a
large build area. Plus jewelers buy a lot of expensive equipment
already, which makes them very desirable customers.

As a metal sculptor, I represent a much smaller market: I don't mind a
loose finish and don't care much about accuracy below 1% of build
size, but $10 per cubic inch is way too high once you get above tiny
sizes, and larger build areas are paramount. So that's a very
different kind of machine.

Neither of those markets cares much about material characteristics
beyond that they burn out well. I bet that the "killer RP app" will
be one that uses the model directly. For my money, the most exciting
processes out there now are the metal sintering ones, where a very
satisfying part is created right out of the machine. I wish I could
afford it.

> >I think all the RP vendors should focus on the low end users in order to
> >build a ladder down that will eventually lead to any and all potential
> >users. If they have no desire to do this then they should focus on
> >bringing down system costs. High end users are a short term market while,
> >we low end users, have the potential to drive sales into the mom and pop
> >shops. Today price really speaks regardless of the language.

So true at the end, though I tend to disagree that the high-end market
is short-term.

I think ZCorp and 3D Systems with their ThermoJet, despite the
imperfect elements of both processes, are very important players right
now. They're the ones who are bringing this technology to the level
where any working stiff can save some pennies and start experimenting
at home. I would bet that the first prototype of the first RP usage
that really cracks the mass market is going to come out of one of
those systems, unless and until something even cheaper comes along.

-Sheba <= your token layman
Bathsheba Grossman (831) 429-8224
Digital Sculpture http://www.bathsheba.com

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