On Thu, 28 Oct 1999, Bill Richards wrote:
> People keep talking about the future of RP will be a rapid prototyping
> machine in every home, as ubiquitous as the ink jet printer is today. That
> will never happen. It isn't so much the cost of the machines, the fact that
> some RP materials are so exotic they require specialized handling, the fact
> that the machines require expensive and time consuming upkeep to maintain
> them, etc. It's simply that it isn't practical.
I agree, but I think I would be more specific about what practical
means. It seems to me that perhaps a good analogy for the dawn of RP
is that of photography. What if RP does to/for 3-D representation
what photography did to/for 2-D? Besides start a lot of rumors about
the death of art, that is.
* Well, in the first place, it'd be a lot less important than the
advent of photography, because representational objects (models and
sculpture) aren't pervasive in most people's lives, in the way that
representational pictures (illustrations, diagrams, photos, paintings
&ct.) are. But gloss that for a moment: objects are important to _us_.
I think one thing this analogy points to, is that the input
side is supremely important to popularization. Right now 3-D
scanning, for most of us, corresponds to a very early era of
photography. To have something (or yourself) scanned, you have to
bring it to a special place, prepare the subject, pose it carefully,
and pay an expert. There's no such thing as a 3-D snapshot, it's
still more like commissioning a painting.
> Think of another machine we find in the office that seems no business can do
> without: the copier. Aside from those of us who have a business at home,
> I'll bet that no one has a copier in their house It isn't like there is no
> demand for this -- look at all the copier service bureaus like Kinkos,
> CopyExpress, Mailboxes Etc. and such. A lot of public libraries have copiers
> that one can use for free or at least a nickel or two. Everyone has to make
> a copy of some document every now and then! But almost no one keeps a Xerox
> copier in their home.
>
> Until the day comes when we have technology that gives us a device such as
> the replicators we see in Star Trek: all you do is tell the computer what
> you want, be it a new shirt or a full dinner, and seconds later there it
> is -- we will never see RP machines in the private home. I would urge RP
> vendors to steer clear of this route for now.
Well, let's not focus too closely. Lots of people do use at least one
free-form image creation and delivery system in their home: an instant
camera. It doesn't paint Rembrandts on demand, or even accept any
remote input of images, but people still found uses for it. And the
chemicals used in film development were also considered too toxic for
home use, at one time.
What's the RP analogue? I don't know, and I grant that not everyone
will want it (by * above), but I think it would be going pretty far to
say that there's zero potential mass market.
> BUT...!
>
> That being said, there is a market there! Mainly: hobbyists, model builders,
> inventors, and as people are finally waking up to the fact, ARTISTS! Which,
> when you think about it, artists tend to cover the first three there,
> anyway. There are always tinkers who will want to have something like a
> prototyper around, so they can make the custom items that invariably they
> will need, or invent. But considering the cost, right now, of a prototyping
> machine, it is pretty likely that these people will still go to a service
> bureau to get the prototype made.
(And it could stay that way while going mass-pop: you can get film
developed at almost any pharmacy, and people - even some art
photographers - don't seem to mind.)
The main way RP differs from photography is that it isn't tied to
_re_presentation, but can create objects which didn't previously
exist, or are modified from existing objects. And I think that's the
unexpectable part. My analogy du jour breaks down, because the tools
that let laymen create and modify photograph-quality images (Photoshop
&ct.) have arrived so recently that we've hardly had time to see what
they will mean.
The amazing consequences of RP for people who are already in the
business of creating objects - manufacturing, art, crafts, &ct. - are
obvious.
What I wonder is, are there people who don't now create objects, but
would if it were easy? And what would they make? Not many people
ever painted portraits, but who hasn't taken a snapshot of a friend?
Photography was invented as a portrait medium, but what else do we
take pictures of, and use them for?
Well, this is all probably premature with respect to the current state
of the industry. And I'm going on way too long, for which I
apologize.
> PROMOTE those that are using your machine! Buy some of Steve's jewelry and
> show your potential clients what someone is already doing using rapid
> prototyping. Grab Michael and Bathsheba and pay them to be guest speakers at
> trade shows to show off what they are doing! You've got to say to the
> jewelers and artists, "Look what these guys are doing with rapid prototyping
> technology. You can too!"
One thing about artists: you can count on us to evangelize on cue.
> Terry Wohlers says that our industry is in the chasm. I agree. But there are
> untapped markets we can tap into to carry us through this, we just have to
> make it easier for these markets to use rapid prototyping. You might realize
> a smaller profit in these markets -- but it is still a profit!
And destiny is on your side.
-Sheba
Bathsheba Grossman (831) 429-8224
Digital Sculpture http://www.bathsheba.com
P.S. I want: an idealized bust of my mom, a telephone in the shape of
a madrone branch, a computer desk that really fits me, a 3-D version
of Botticelli's "Birth of Venus" inside an egg with a peephole, a
cast-iron fireback with a relief picture of my cat, a house foundation
customized to my sloping lot, a creche scene with me and my
boyfriend's faces on Mary and Joseph, and sneakers that leave
footprints with my monogram in the middle. And I have this idea for a
kind of lightswitch that would be unique to my house, let me draw you
a picture on this napkin...
For more information about the rp-ml, see http://ltk.hut.fi/rp-ml/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : Tue Jun 05 2001 - 22:53:12 EEST