From: PENQUAKR74@aol.com
Date: Wed Sep 17 2003 - 00:38:13 EEST
At the time the article or announcement was first mentioned, I searched in
vain for any mention of it. I'd like to see that article if anyone still have
an on-line copy.
As for a 1,000 printer, it's possible. Some time ago some of you may
remember that I was then at SRI International as manager of Technology
Commercialization. We had developed an RP process and materials that used a Texas
Instruments Digital Micromirror Device that was capable of focusing light in cross
section patterns using a noncoherent light source-a light bulb. SRI filed several
patents related to the materials and the machine for utilization of those
materials. Based on a study developed by SRI Consulting we determined that
Machine could be built and sold for less than $30,000. However the manufacturing
system developed was also applicable to other areas as well and the researchers
were more focused on those areas (Battery Development and Metallic Printing
of active and Passive Circuits). I performed a second market analysis which
clearly forecast what is happening in the Industry right now and teamed with a
company that was a custom engineering design firm in Fremont California to
develop an advanced design and sought to raise capital to make that design. We
had the design for a machine that could possibly be manufactured for under
$10,000 and sold for about $15,000. We were able to achieve this by talking with
Texas Instruments about what kind of volume we would have to buy in order to
drive the costs of the DMD down to a level that would allow us to create the
design. Our major problem was timing was everything: this took place just as the
Internet Bubble burst and funds dried up for everything. However, the design
is still there and with a company like HP, it could possibly develop a
machine that might sell for under 5,000 for sure and eventually for under 1,000.
Based on my conversation with the Product manager at TI, volume sales for the
DMD that would exceed a mere 400,000 units a year would definitely drive down
the price where a machine could be built for a substantial reduction in
manufacturing parts, manufacturability, and labor.
What was special about the SRI machine was the materials technology that it
was capable of using and the parts that it produced (yes, there was a working
machine pre-prototype). It produced parts in ceramic (silicon nitride) and
formulations were readily producible for Stainless Steel and Polymers. When I
first heard about the rumor of HP's entry of a 1,000 dollar RP Machine, I was
sure that HP had developed similar technology given its proximity to SRI.
In conclusion, you can bet that there will be a machine that will be far less
than 20,000 dollars and very shortly a consumer-oriented machine for less
than a few thousand. Replacement of missing items from household devices is more
of a concern than people think. Consider the following scenario: You have a
stove knob that has cracked and you have been using pliers to turn the gas on
and off or exchanging on knob for another, risking breaking that knob also.
The manufacturer has discontinued that range and no longer supplys a knob that
matches your model. But, they do have an stl file of that part which you can
download for a few dollars. You take the file to Kinko's (the future of
service bureaus) where they have an RP printer machine that will produce your knob
for you and perhaps bake it out if need be (you can do it at home in your
oven). And you have the file for doing it again if any other knob breaks.
But this could have been a ceramic knic knac, jewelry model, a toy, an iron
temperature dial, some other personal item or discontinued replacement part.
RP machines will follow the same market progression that personal computers
and computer printers have followed with apparently greater speed of new
product development. From 1955 to 1980, computing systems moved from mainframe to
mini to micro, a period of 25 years to go from millions of dollars to
thousands. It took a mere additional 10 years to get to under 1,000 dollars. If the
analogy continues to hold up, we can expect a 1,000 dollar machine in 2005,
about half the time it took to get to the same point for personal computers
because the prior advancements in computing power translates to the RP market.
I welcome any comments on the foregoing.
Scott Taper
Technology Commercialization Consulting
TCC has joined with Andreé Driskell Associates
(www.andreedriskellassociates.com) to add proposal and business plan preparation services for responses to
commercial and Government RFPs and other funding opportunities. TCC accepts
selected innovations for technical and market assessment and licensing.
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