Market Saturation

Date: Mon May 26 1997 - 17:43:29 EEST

-- [ From: Al Hastbacka * EMC.Ver #2.5.3 ] --

The talk about market saturation at 2500 units is absolute nonsense. I
am investigating NICHE markets that have needs for four to ten times
this number of units. In one of our studies, we have found more than
thirty thousand companies in the US alone that have a need for RP. The
international market requirements will more than double this. This
would indicate that more than 70,000 companies have a need for RP. When
you figure that many of these companies have needs for multiple units,
the potential market is at least two orders of magnitude higher than the
2500 units that were mentioned.

This discussion reminds me of IBM's original forecast of $25M for the
3250 graphic systems that Sanders designed and produced for Big Blue.
The final numbers on this product and the derivative products ended up
at $1.5B. Even IBM can miss its market forcasts by a wide mark.

What is needed to meet these larger markets?

1. Easier to use 3D software. e.g. JewelCad is making the design of
jewelry possible by model makers (i.e. people) who are not previously
trained in CAD. This is an area where the universities and colleges can
make a significant contribution.

2. Lower cost RP systems- This will come with larger volume sales.

3. Better education in the area of 3D CAD design- Again the universities
and colleges are major factors here.

4. Lower cost 3D CAD software- Too bad Trispectives has not turned out
as well as several of us had hoped.

Al Hastbacka

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