Re: world crisis

From: Steven Pollack (
Date: Mon Jan 18 1999 - 00:45:43 EET

I hate to disagree but I studied economics in college and I practice what I
learned continuously by studying current market conditions. I forsee a large
credit contraction followed by global production decline. With $5.5 trillion
in debt which we can never repay and the money supply currently exploding $600
billion in the past twelve months, easy United States monetary and fiscal
policy has lead to global overproduction and malinvestment. This credit
"bubble" has lead to the current blowout in the equities markets. Initially
the newly printed money was invested overseas in the miracle economies but as
overproduction caused widespread default in Asia, Russia, and now Latin
America, the new money finds it easier to live with 20% annual gains in

Nothing is created as people bring their freshly printed money to the DOW
gambling table to bid up the price of paper securities. The wealth effect
does cause a rise in consumer spending and as this is the last pole holding up
the tent, Alan Greenspan recently stated that protecting this wealth effect
was proper monetary policy.

What this means for RP and manufacturing in general is that we are at the edge
of the abyss of deflation/depression. This is not gloom and doom but
reality. That it has not happened as quickly as the media and forward
thinking people have identified the conditions is testimony to the sheer size
of the U.S. financial markets. Large ships turn slowly.

President Clinton stated, during the Sept. 98 market fall, that the government
should try to achieve economic prosperity without the booms and bust of the
business cycle. That he said that after an eight year boom and has kept quiet
about it as the markets passed that event and gone on to more unprecedented
valuations of U.S. companies shows that he does not care about the booms and
busts of the business cycle, only the busts. Many of you may say, so what, I
like the booms also. Well economics is cyclical and there are booms and
busts. Had the government and Federal Reserve allowed a recession instead of
turning on the M3 money spigots, then it would have been mild. But instead,
Rubin has pumped up the bubble with easy credit, lower interest, and greater
money supply so that when the bubble does pop it will be disasterous.

The best thing I could say to all of you is to pay down your outstanding loans
with any extra money you have in order to not be forced into bankruptcy.
Protecting assets in a downturn is as important to maintaining lifestyle as
making money in an upturn.

Steven Pollack
B.S.B.A Economics

long time wrote:

> Chris,
> you're doom and gloom attitude has been mirrored by the press for many
> months (years?) now and it seems you'll have to change some attitudes
> before you import it to the US. With new resins and new innovations
> coming out every day I am more excited now than ever.
> can anyone tell me the last time Helisys came out with something REALLY
> new? I can't remember. I'm not saying they haven't, I'm saying I can't
> recall and or I haven't heard about it. which points out one of two
> (major) problems with Helisys(maybe three if they are blaming asia). its
> easy to point to ply. exp. and or Helisys and say "look whats happening
> here" but it is a far cry from the rest of the rp world and I believe
> you could point out a few "look whats happening here"s in any industry,
> thats how capitalism works the strong survive.
> >Dear ladies and sirs,
> >I'm hope that many will agree with me, that in Asia
> > and Latin America the asssets of many of the machine-building
> companies
> >are concentrated . The big part of American business is located in
> Latin
> >America. It is very probably that the process will not be limited by
> >devaluation of Brazilian currency.There are no doubt that the economic
> >decline in the above mentioned countries will cause to negative
> economic
> >consequences in all developed countries because of high integration of
> >world economy. During crisis especially high-tech directions are
> >vulnerable . Therefore I consider that at least growth of the RP
> >market will be slowed.
> >Does somebody acquainted with the Helisys annual financial report?
> Look
> >it at the
> >
> > Just a little quotation for Yakov: "The Asian financial crisis and
> the
> >strength of the dollar adversely affected sales and systems pricing
> >which contributed to the reduction in revenues"
> >
> >
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