RE: Thoughts and comments on the Plynetics Auction (Schaumburg l

From: Brock Hinzmann (
Date: Tue Mar 23 1999 - 03:39:16 EET

In my original market forecast of RP technology, dated January 1991, I
wrote that:

As RP technologies become more reliable and less expensive, some
observers expect that the importance of service bureaus will decline... a sign
that companies have become comfortable with RP technology and are beginning
to adapt it in-house... However, companies may continue to pursue RP with
service bureaus as a cost-effective way to pursue new designs...

The actual market numbers I projected were much more conservative than
those 100 percent per year growth figures published at that time, but even
my numbers for 2001 are looking a little too bullish (unless the next two
years bring some great breakthrough).

I still don't think that what the RP industry is going through at the
moment is anything other than normal for a new technology. If someone among
the many players out there comes up with a breakthrough in performance or
in price-to-performance ratio, the entire industry could be off and running
again. Consider that the Internet languished for twenty years before
someone invented an easier way to use it. If it hadn't been for DARPA and a
few die-hard users, it might not have lasted that long. Perhaps the wrong
people are throwing too much money at the wrong RP problem or too little
money at the big problem, or totally ignoring some killer technology. I don't
know, but, unless the global capitalist model has already run its course,
it's a little too early to be blowing taps for RP or RP service bureaus.

Brock Hinzmann
Technology Navigator

Karl Denton wrote:
>I'm not sure that I believe that the market will bottom out! Companies
>close every day and yet other industries seem to still be growing. I
>conducted surveys for the RP industry for several years now and have
>based any prediction, market growth comment on the service bureau
>This in my mind is risky at best. Service bureau's can and do go out of
>business for several reasons and in the case of Pylnetics it was very
>money management, not attributed to sales of RP parts or services. When
>Pylnetics Express shut down there was a massive insurgence of part build
>requests to the rest of the RP SB community and indeed it sparked
>NEW purchases of equipment. The fact that the machines that were going
>at auction will typically not hurt new sales and in fact may help push
>others to new machines (case in point is the client that I went to the
>auction to represent).
>You must remember that this is a small industry and every time there is
>burp in anybody's business others and indeed the whole industry hears
>reacts to it. Even if Compression is forced to down size or close this
>my opinion would not cause sales of new RP equipment to stop or slow
>There are several hundred if not thousands of companies that have never
>heard of Pylnetics, Compression and in some cases even RP that will be
>potential new users of this technology. I might suggest (at the risk of
>starting a whole new batch of emails from various individuals) state
>earlier growth predictions and forecasts may have been a bit too
>in being based on the SB industry. I might add that the SB's in my area
>doing well, producing and growing and at a manageable rate, and that
>all have figured out what they were best at and have managed to use that
>their advantage.
>As for the price tag that 3D has decided to put on their equipment I can
>only say that I think this will hurt in the long run. They have always
>the highest priced and in some cases the most arrogant about it. This
>change over time and I hope that it does. I have used their equipment
>some time and do believe that they have very sound an reliable equipment
>others are catching up and should not be over looked by 3D. Instead of
>seeing an industry wide slow down I think that we will see customer
>change from manufacturer to manufacturer based on these things. This
>provide some with the opportunity to expand and then provide others with
>wake-up call.
>I hope this answers your question...
>Karl R. Denton
>Advanced Technology Consultants LLC
>4778 Greenview Ct.
>Commerce Twp., MI 48382
>Phone: 248-363-1478
>Cell: 248-789-6410
>Pager: 248-523-3318
>Fax: 248-363-7488
>Helping you excel through the use of Advanced Technologies
>-----Original Message-----
>From: B. J. Arnold-Feret []
>Sent: Sunday, March 21, 1999 11:40 PM
>To: Karl Denton
>Subject: RE: Thoughts and comments on the Plynetics Auction (Schaumburg
>Now, having got all that other stuff out of the way-
>What, in your opinion, is going to be the bottoming out of the market on
>equipment from a timing and pricing level? Let's assume (always
>;) that Compression does go down the tubes and their equipment becomes
>available within the next year.
>Used DTM machines continue to sell cheaper than I expect. Used SLA 250
>machines are easily obtained right now.
>It is pretty interesting that 3D is selling the new machine at quite a
>ticket price, and used equipment continues to drop in pricing. I
>thought the market would bottom out in around summer of 2000. However,
>several firms gone in a shorter time that I predicted, I wonder if the
>timeframe should be moved up. I know that we'll hear from Terry about
>future at the RP & M, but I am very interested in other perspectives.
>B. J. Arnold-Feret
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>To: "B. J. Arnold-Feret" <>
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>Subject: RE: Thoughts and comments on the Plynetics Auction (Schaumburg
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